Near the end of the year, with the successful holding of the annual strategy meetings of various securities companies, the first batch of securities companies' 2023 investment strategies has also been released!
Looking forward to 2023, how will the chief macro and strategy chiefs of securities companies judge the general trend, what styles are optimistic about, and which mainline opportunities to focus on...it is generally believed that 2023 can be appropriately positive. The main line of security is unanimously optimistic.
Zhang Xinyuan, chief strategy officer of Huatai Securities, said in the annual strategy report that 2023 may be a year of change for the market to build a bottom and repair, and it is recommended to grasp the main line of consumption restart + technology symbiosis.
Huatai Securities believes that from now to the end of next year, A-shares may first build a bottom and then repair, and in the first half of 2023, the valuation repair will be the first, and the profit will be relayed in the second half of the year. The market structure in 2023 is similar to that in 2022. Growth + downstream dominance, consumption establishment + technology singing, grasping the dual main lines of social restart + virtual-real symbiosis, and mining segmentation opportunities in the cycle and manufacturing; themed investment can focus on shared prosperity and social interaction Investment opportunities in the four major directions of the restart, safety, and advanced industrial base.
In the general trend analysis, Huatai Securities believes that the profit of all A companies in 2023 may be flat before (the first half of the year) and then high (the second half of the year). The strength is the moderate improvement of the domestic credit structure and the overseas liquidity distribution environment.
In terms of style, Huatai Securities believes that growth and downstream are dominant, which is similar to 2022. 2022 is dominated by small caps/value/upstream. If 2022 is a trend year for styles, then 2023 may be a year for style changes. Growth will continue to be under pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and may reverse in 2023. In terms of market value style, small caps will dominate in 2022. Huatai believes that the large cycle of excess returns of small and medium caps is still on the rise, but next year may be a "resting year" for the logic of excess returns. The performance scissors gap will not turn sharply, and the remaining liquidity will converge but not turn negative. , is expected to balance the size of the market. In terms of profitability, from the perspective of PPIRM year-on-year, PPI year-on-year, CPI year-on-year, and price difference trends, the profitability of the midstream and downstream relative to the upstream has improved, and the improvement is greater in the downstream than in the upstream.
In terms of industry configuration, in 2023, consumption will set up a stage, and technology will perform. In the field of consumption, 2023 may be the year of bottoming and repair of consumer stocks: first, on the numerator side, the real estate vs fixed investment scissors gap may usher in a mild recovery; second, on the denominator side, the cyclical fall in the real interest rate of US bonds will also bring about excess consumption The restoration of the income logic; the third is the valuation and position level, and the crowdedness of the positions has dropped to the level of nearly 2014; the fourth is the operation of the weight industry medicine to the industry fundamentals + policy changes.
In terms of TMT, the current TMT industry, which is mainly based on VR/AR, semiconductors, and the Internet of Things, is at a relatively low level of relative prosperity in the emerging industries, and the crowded position of the TMT sector has dropped to the bottom in the past 10 years. VR/AR may usher in a double-click opportunity for Davis. In the manufacturing field, sub-tracks should be selected, and the focus should be shifted from electrification to automation + intelligence. 2023 may be the "relay station year" of manufacturing style. The financial sector may have periodic excess returns led by "recovery confirmation". The cyclical sector is a logically pressured year for excess returns and exploring local opportunities.
In terms of thematic investment, Huatai Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in the four major directions of common prosperity, social restart, food + energy + national defense, and advanced industrial foundation. For the topic of mutual wealth, it is recommended to focus on vocational education and rural revitalization; for the subject of the restart, it is recommended to focus on mass consumer goods, aviation and airports, express logistics, catering and tourism, advertising and marketing, and film and television theaters; for the topic of safety, it is recommended to focus on animal protection, oil and gas equipment, energy storage, Military electronics, aviation equipment; the theme of advanced industrial foundation, it is recommended to focus on machine tools, robots, optical communication, medical equipment, and semiconductor design.
Zheshang Securities Macro Chief Li Chao and others also recently released the 2023 macro annual strategy report. Li Chao and others believe that looking forward to 2023, the macro uncertainties that disturb the market will fade one by one, the peak will turn around, and the equity market will also usher in a new turning point.
Li Chao and others said that the turnaround comes from four aspects: economy, epidemic, geography, and overseas. The economic aspect is mainly the clarification of policy expectations after the introduction of medium and long-term real estate plans. Taking into account the potential timing of changes in global uncertainties, Zheshang Securities believes that after the two sessions in 2023, the market is expected to usher in a turning point, and the equity market will enter the slow bull channel in the first half of the year.
In terms of the asset allocation of major categories, Zheshang Securities reminded to seize the multi-dimensional structural opportunities of national security, with special attention to food, energy, and industrial chain supply chain security.
Zheshang Securities predicts that the A-share market will show structural characteristics, and the expected difference brought by the restoration of people flow in airports, tourism hotels , and restaurants will be the largest, bringing investment opportunities for the reversal of difficulties.
In addition, in the future, we will focus on growth-style investment opportunities after the US Treasury bond yields peak. Specifically, it includes the field of manufacturing strong chain and supplementary chain (independent controllable and import substitution) and industrial base reconstruction. Under the background of supply shortage and internal circulation to supplement the weak board, we continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of the manufacturing industry's strong chain supplementary chain (semiconductor and machine tool mother machines).
One is the strong chain complement. According to his judgment, the major technical equipment research project is an important starting point for improving the new national system of key core technology research, mainly referring to industrial mother machines, new energy vehicles, marine engineering equipment, energy equipment, agricultural machinery equipment, rail transit equipment, construction machinery In key areas such as industrial policy support, leading enterprises with conditions will join forces with upstream and downstream industries, production, education and research to form innovation consortia in different fields, and adopt mechanisms such as "revealing the list and taking command", "selecting horses and racing horses", and "setting up military orders" to speed up the conquest. key core technologies.
The second is the reengineering of the industrial base. The industrial foundation can be defined as the basic industrial chain links of various industries in the national economy and the collection of a series of elements and environments that provide basic support, mainly including basic components, basic electronic components, basic materials, basic software, basic Technology, industrial technology foundation and other fields. The industrial foundation is generally located in the upstream or intermediate links of the industrial chain, rather than directly facing end consumers. Because of its basic status and functions, it is the basic condition and source of power for building an independent and controllable modern industrial system and shaping sustainable national competitive advantages. .
Li Lifeng, deputy director and chief strategist of the West China Securities Research Institute, pointed out in his annual strategy report that looking forward to the A-share strategy in 2023, A-shares are at a "new starting point for renaissance" and may wish to be more active in 2023.
First, external factors may improve marginally in 2023. This includes: first, the stage where the global new crown epidemic has the greatest impact on the economy may be in the past; second, the impact of the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict" on global risk appetite has weakened; third, the Fed is expected to "dove turn", which may From February and March next year.
Second, A-share institutional positions and valuations are at a reasonable level. At present, the position level of A-share absolute income institutions is at a neutral low level, and the valuation of A-share major stock indexes has dropped to a historically low level.
Third, the A-share run in 2023 will be similar to "2019". Considering factors such as the low base macro environment and reform expectations, the market environment faced by A shares is similar to 2019. As a result, it is expected that the A-share market will have structural opportunities in 2023.
In terms of market style in 2023, Li Lifeng believes that "technological growth" is the first choice; in terms of industry configuration, it focuses on "safety" + "development". From the perspective of market style and the performance of the small and medium-sized market cycle, it is expected that the A-share market style in 2023 will be similar to that in 2019, that is, the "technological growth category" is preferred in the market style, and the "medium and large-cap" market capitalization is relatively dominant.
In terms of industry configuration in 2023, Li Lifeng recommends two main lines:
1) The main line of "security", national defense security, food security, energy security, information security, public medical and health security, etc.;
2) The main line of "development", China leads the opportunity brought by the third energy transition, and is optimistic about new energy.
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